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First Broadcast 06/04/2008
Printable version »Transcript
At the end of last week, NATO countries gathered in Bucharest to come up with a more coherent strategy for advancing the struggle against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Jim Middleton, Presenter: Philip Wilkinson, thank you very much for your time. Colonel Philip Wilkinson, British Army (retired) and research associate: My pleasure, Jim. Jim Middleton, Presenter: Lord Ashdown, who was blocked from being the UN Special Envoy in Afghanistan by President Karzai, is warning that the NATO alliance is pretty close to losing control of the country, is that your assessment? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: I think that's a bit extreme. Clearly things are not going as well as they ought for two reasons really. One is the level of strategic coordination, and the other one is in the tactical detail of the security wall. So Paddy is right to say that things aren't going terribly well, but that's not to say they won't be put right. Jim Middleton: President Bush has been backing up his field commanders who are asking for more troops from NATO members. In your view will the 10,000 additional forces being mentioned make a critical difference? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Yeah, I mean there's no doubt that they need more resources on the ground, because the mission there is to impose the rule of law and extend the writ of central government into the provinces. And the writ of central government has really never extended into the provinces, ever. So when you think of that in terms of a policing challenge, which is what it effectively is, then we need a lot more troops on the ground to achieve that mission. If the mission was simply to fight and defeat the Taliban, it would be relatively simple, but the extension of the rule of law and the imposition of the rule of law is a massive challenge and if you think that, for example, Helmand Province where the Brits are is half the size of England or half the size of say the North Island of New Zealand, think of that sort of land mass and imagine all you can put on the ground is 2,000 troops in any one day on patrol. But the population, of course, is higher than it is in North Island. So when you have to impose the rule of law over such a large area when you have so few troops, it is almost impossible to achieve that as a mission. Jim Middleton: That's a pretty pessimistic assessment, is that where the NATO forces have failed to date? It would seem to require a massive shift in policy and in troop numbers to get that kind of commitment to enable the writ of law from Kabul to extend out into the provinces? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Well it depends on the strategy they take on the ground. If we realign our strategic approach at the tactical level, if you like, which is effectively what we intend to do this year, and I think all of NATO intends to do under General Dan O'Neill, I think that gives us a more sensible approach which is more likely to lead to success in the longer term. Jim Middleton: So you are confident that out of the NATO summit in Bucharest, measures of the kind that you're talking about will be taken, and that they have a greater chance of success than what's happened over the previous few years? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Well I think the way we're realigning ourselves tactically, the slightly new approach that we're taking, in particular also the refocusing and re-targeting of our efforts against the drug barons, rather than those impoverished farmers who produce the poppy, then I think because of the obvious synergy that there is, negative synergy from our perspective between the drug trade and the insurgency, we need to break that connectivity as well and that means targeting our intelligence efforts and also our security - our special forces efforts, and of course, this is where your troops are playing a big role. We need to focus intelligence and special forces to take down the industrial drug producers. Jim Middleton: The Afghans have been fending off and seeing off foreigners for over a century and shown great resilience, will Western governments have the political will to continue as casualties mount? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: I think they will so long as the Afghan population perceives its own government in Kabul as being legitimate. When I hear the sort of analogies made with, for example, the Russians, of course it's not really credible to me because I lived and worked with Afghans for the two years that I was there. As long as they support their own government and it is a Muslim Islamic government, then they are going to be content - up to a point - to accept international assistance to their legitimate government. If the legitimacy of that government declines to a degree that the international community is seen to be leading, then of course the support of the Afghan people will greatly diminish and that was the problem, if you like, with poor old Paddy Ashdown, because the Brit media was trumpeting what a great man he would be, they were talking about Vice Roy and Karzai was thinking about his own domestic constituents and it looked to many Afghans reading the sort of Western press as if Paddy was going to come in and run the country. Well, that was quite understandably absolutely unacceptable to President Karzai, and that's why, you know, he turned down the offer of Paddy Ashdown whereas he on the other hand, that's President Karzai, would just die to have some form of coherence imposed upon the international community, which effectively is anarchic in Afghanistan. Jim Middleton: Who's fault is that then, and how is that going to change? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Well, the UN is supposed to lead the international reconstruction and development efforts in Afghanistan. The UN has not selected a special representative of the Secretary General with sufficient clout and credibility to beat the international community into some form of sort of coherence, such that they conform to one strategic long-term plan. Jim Middleton: What you're saying in a nut shell is that there's a need to find a way to extend the legitimacy of the Karzai Government beyond Kabul, beyond the capital. If we get, that then the chances of success would be that much greater? Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Yeah, you're right. I mean that is the nub of the mission that we have, and until the international community gets behind that mission in a coherent and coordinated manner, then any amount of resources will not work. More resources would help, but first and foremost, we need strategic coordination in support of the Afghan government. Jim Middleton: Philip Wilkinson, thank you very much for joining us on Asia Pacific Focus. Colonel Philip Wilkinson: Pleasure. |
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