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Pakistan's uncertain future
Feature on the political climate in Pakistan
First Broadcast 24/02/2008
After nearly a decade at the helm, the Pakistani President's future is hanging in the balance. Pervez Musharraf suffered a serious blow in Monday's elections, with the two main opposition parties winning a majority and agreeing to form a coalition government.

The election result is also being seen a victory over the country's ultra religious parties and pro-Taliban forces. And it's raised hopes that democracy will be able to take hold in Pakistan at last. Thom Cookes was in Islamabad for Pakistan's election.


Thom Cookes, Reporter: Even though she was assassinated in December, Benazir Bhutto still dominates Pakistani politics.

Zahid Hussain, Political commentator: This is one lady that has shaken the entire nation. The assassins may have removed her [physically], but her legacy lives on.

Thom Cookes: This book launch in Islamabad is part memorial and part political rally. And many prominent opposition figures have come to pay their respects. The former prime minister completed the book just days before she was murdered at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi. Because of her death and the violent rioting that followed, the government postponed Pakistan's elections.

But this week, the vote finally happened. Although Pervez Musharraf has already been appointed president for the next five years, the vote became a referendum on his leadership. His popularity has sunk to an all-time low, and his government faces a host of domestic and foreign policy nightmares. Not least of these is the open warfare between the president and Pakistan's judges and lawyers, culminating in the arrest of chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

Athar Minallah is a prominent Islamabad lawyer and a former civil servant. He's organised many of the protest rallies, demanding the release of the chief justice and other judges who are still under house arrest.

Athar Minallah, Lawyer: The people who are coming out on the streets, on Islamabad streets, these ... it's a class which, I mean one could have never imagined would ever come out and protest.

Thom Cookes: Down at the Islamabad district courts, the lawyers are on strike.

Feisel Rafique, Lawyer: Yes, the lawyers are on strike from 11th to the 18th of this month.

Thom Cookes: Why?

Feisel Rafique: Because of the act of the government regarding the removal of the judges.

Thom Cookes: What most upsets the lawyers here is how they were treated during a march to the house of the chief justice to show support.

Feisel Rafique: The way they were manhandled, ill-treated by the local police by sprinkling water over them, by using tear gases, use of force, use of batons, beating and injuring the lawyers, civil communities, especially the ladies.

Thom Cookes: The lawyers continued to protest after the election, calling for the president's removal and the restoration of the sacked judges, including chief justice Chaudhry. For the less well-off in Pakistan's rural areas, there were also more immediate concerns. The price of staple foods like wheat, rice, and cooking oil have all doubled in the last three months.

"We hope that after the elections that things will get better." Local resident


Vox pop: Well, the prices have gone up. It's out of control at the moment. Essential commodities are high. Well, we hope that after the elections that things will get better.

Thom Cookes: But many people have lost faith in the political process altogether.

Vox pop 2 (translated): We don't expect any change here. Poor people cannot get food for their families. I can never afford good quality cooking oil. What can we expect?

Thom Cookes: Along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan, the government has little influence at all and Islamic fundamentalists have become increasingly powerful. This is [a] village … in the North-West Frontier Province.

Vox pop 3 (translated): It's very difficult in this area because there's fundamentalism here. The people's loyalties are the same as they were in the old times because there is no government.

Thom Cookes: It's a similar story in the federated tribal areas further south.

How would you characterise the level of influence the Government has in the federated tribal areas at the moment?

General Talat Masood, Former defence secretary: Well, I would say that the rate is very, very weak at this point in time. In fact, in some areas it is nonexistent and that is why you find that the militants are becoming more and more powerful.

Thom Cookes: There's also little faith in how the election itself was run.

"None of the political parties have any trust or confidence in that electoral commission." Athar Minallah


Athar Minallah, Lawyer: You have a totally subjugated, input, in-kind offer, election commission and none of the political parties have any trust or confidence in that electoral commission. The elections have already been rigged.

Thom Cookes: Kunwar Muhammed Dilshad is the head of the Pakistan Election Commission. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he believes that everything is under control.

Kunwar Muhammed Dilshad, Secretary, Pakistan Election Commission: The appointment has already been completed. So, we can easily say that the Election Commission of Pakistan is ready to conduct the election, in a very [smooth] manner.

Thom Cookes: His office received a large number of written complaints, but according to Mr Dilshad the vast majority were baseless.

Kunwar Muhammed Dilshad: Yes, yes. About 1,500 complaints have been received by the ECP (Election Commission of Pakistan) and mostly complaints have been disposed of.

Thom Cookes: Complaints by the media have also been disposed with. The Pakistan Government has granted itself sweeping and controversial powers to control the media during the elections.

"We have to follow certain code of conduct." Mazhar Abbas


Mazhar Abbas, Secretary-General, Pakistan Journalists' Union: We have to follow certain code of conduct, that code of conduct which was provided by the government. We have to follow that. Otherwise …

Thom Cookes: What's in that code? What does that mean?

Mazhar Abbas: It means you can't criticise the President.

Thom Cookes: The government has also targeted specific journalists. Hamad Mier is one of the journalists who has been forced off air.

Hamid Mir, Journalist: I'm not on air because Pervez Musharraf don't like my frank questions, my bold questions. A few days before the imposition of emergency in Pakistan, he called me personally … and he tried to influence my views and he warned that we should not raise important constitutional and political questions.

Mazhar Abbas: I have covered elections since 1988. I have never faced these kind of pressures.

Thom Cookes: In the run up to the vote, there were a series of suicide bombings and shootings at campaign rallies. Eighty thousand troops were mobilised across the country in a massive security operation. But the military, which has dominated the government for much of Pakistan's history, now seems to be pulling back from an active role in politics.

General Talat Masood: There has been a shift and I think they will have to keep this shift and stay away from politics as far as possible, because now it is no more in their interests to be in politics. It is weakening the institution itself and they're unable to face the challenges, the military challenges, the professional challenges. They need to focus on their profession.

Athar Minallah: People of this country want to change and they actually want to prove it to the world that they are liberals. They believe in democracy and probably the latest spate of extremism has become a catalyst in bringing these people out.

Thom Cookes: But Pakistan has been pulled by violent forces in a number of different directions simultaneously and whatever the result of these elections, it still faces an uncertain future.
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Jim Middleton presents Asia Pacific Focus for Australia Network and ABC Television.
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