There are no signs Burma's ruling Junta is easing off the pressure after it crushed last weeks pro-democracy protests.

Reports suggest the military has arrested more activists, and troops are still out in force. Nowhere are the events being watched more closely than Thailand. Its estimated more than a million Burmese are in the country.

And the longer the troubles in Burma go on, the more the Thai Government will feel the heat to take action against its biggest energy supplier.

Norman Hermant reports from the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

Norman Hermant, Reporter: With every shot that is fired in Rangoon, with every activist that is rounded up and arrested, it doesn't take long for the news to spread here, on the streets of Chaing Mai.

This city in northern Thailand is a magnet for Burmese dissidents and refugees. It's also home to what may be the largest independent media organisation, devoted largely to cover every event in Burma, 'The Irrawaddy'.

Its journalists are used to struggling to get information out of Burma. That all changed in the last few weeks.

Kyaw Zwa Moe, managing editor, 'The Irrawaddy': That is amazing to have tonnes of information as well as a lot of pictures and video clips from inside Burma.

We never see that kind of information flowing into our office before. Just after the protest and demonstration in Burma, after a few hours, one hour and thirty minutes later, we received a lot of pictures.

Norman Hermant: Kyaw Zwa Moe knows all too well this is not 1988. Back then, he was a teenage protest leader who was eventually jailed for eight years. Based on what he has experienced, he says he doesn't believe Burma's anti-government protesters are finished.

”They will reorganise their demonstration again.” Kyaw Zwa Moe

Kyaw Zwa Moe: I think they will come out again if they get a chance, and they will reorganise their demonstration again.

If you look back at the 1988 demonstration, to gain such a moment in 1988, it took one year to have that kind of moment, and the protest began on a smaller scale in 1987.

Norman Hermant: More civil strife in Burma is just the kind of thing its neighbours, Thailand, don't want. The Thai Government has already been criticised by human rights activists for being slow to condemn Burma's Junta for its violent crackdown.

Asada Jayanama, a former Thai ambassador to the United Nations, points out Thailand only criticised Burma's generals after Asia on uncharacteristically stepped into the fray. Such caution, he says, is a mistake.

Asada Jayanama, former Thai UN ambassador: You can have a principle stance, and I think it's necessary to have a principle stance, without being hostage to some of our concrete economic interests, or our fear that we will be flooded by refugees.

Norman Hermant: But principles won't stop Thailand from doing business with Burma's generals. Their biggest single money maker is the export of $3 million of natural gas to Thailand. Asada Jayanama says few Thais would support boycotting Burmese natural gas, especially since it provides one-fifth of Thailand's electricity.

”Most Thais would think in terms of economic national interest now.” Asada Jayanama

Asada Jayanama: Most Thais would think in terms of economic national interest now, and Thai people are not very ideological in that sense, we are more practical, at least some of us.

Norman Hermant: Back at 'The Irrawaddy', Kyaw Zwa Moe says he believes the Burmese people are getting the message: they are on their own, their neighbours won't help them force out the ruling Junta, and neither will the UN special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari.

Kyaw Zwa Moe: He couldn't bring out anything except photos and pictures with the General, the kind of photos that show the trip to Burma, so Burmese people now I think realise that they have to continue their movement by sacrificing themselves.

Norman Hermant: Many have already been willing to pay the price, and for now it seems the Junta's grip on power remains as tight as ever.

Someone who has closely followed the political fallout during the crisis in Burma is Zaw Oo. He's the director of the Vahu Development Institute in Thailand, an independent think tank specialising in Burmese issues. Helen Vatsikopoulos spoke to him from Bangkok.

Helen Vatsikopoulos, Presenter: Zaw Oo, welcome.

Zaw Oo, Vahu Development Institute: Thank you, thank you.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: From where do you think the impetus for any change will now come? From within Burma, or outside?

Zaw Oo: The change might come from both within and outside of the country, but first I think the military as an institution has to decide what they are going to do next with the population, and the military at this point, is also facing a very critical juncture internally.

The current leader, General Than Shwe, hasn't resolved who is going to succeed him, and then they are also facing all kinds of challenges from within. So I think this is a time for the military [to] also come to a solution.

”Outside of Burma, I think the most important pressure should come from our big neighbours.” Zaw Oo

And then also, outside of Burma, I think the most important pressure should come from our big neighbours, like China, India, and also the ASEAN.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Well you mentioned the military. It appears there has been a military defector, who says there have been splits in the ruling Junta. What can you tell us about this?

Zaw Oo: The military are facing all kinds of problems within the rank and file, and then last year, the military have experienced a desertion, which is exceeding 10,000 soldiers who ran away from their units because they can't live under the harsh conditions of the army.

There are also the external pressures because China is also facing another deadline, when they are going to host the Olympics next year. So they will have to pressure the regime to find a solution within the year, because otherwise China as an immediate neighbour to Burma will be held accountable for what's going on in the country.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: But there are so many countries that stand to benefit from their relationship with Burma. If China wavers, then India is keen to step in for strategic advantage. Do you really think they will take the moral stand above the economic benefit?

Zaw Oo: They don't have to take a moral stand if they don't want to, but they do have a geostrategy and also the regional interest to have a stable and democratic Burma.

We have a historical record where the democratic Burma plays a very responsible role within the region. Our late Prime Minister actually played very responsibly, he even helped mediate the conflict between India and China, and both India and China respected Burma.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: But in Thailand where you are, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said Thailand would not oppose the Burmese Junta because it would lose out on natural resources like gas, and that other nations secretly protected Burma for similar reasons.

”What we have been experiencing in Burma is what we call the resource curse.” Zaw Oo

Zaw Oo: What we have been experiencing in Burma is what we call the resource curse, because the Burmese economy is totally dependent on natural resources, and the regime is using the income from the resources very irresponsibly, without caring about the welfare of the people.

So it means the economy model that the regime is promoting in the country is not working, so down the road, I think Burma can experience a state failure. Thailand as a frontline state to Burma will definitely suffer from all these negative spill-overs.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: ASEAN provided Burma with legitimacy when it was admitted, and its members have benefited economically, now ASEAN has a new charter with a human rights element. Do you think ASEAN will now pursue Burma on this?

Zaw Oo: One good example of what ASEAN can do is they have played a very significant role in seeking a peace agreement in the Cambodian conflict, and the fact that Australia also played quite an active role at that time.

So I think these models should guide ASEAN and the middle powers like Australia to help the United Nations to find the solution.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Singapore is the ASEAN chair now, and has expressed concern for what is happening there, but Singapore is a huge investor in Burma, and also a military supplier. Will it put its investments at risk by taking any action?

Zaw Oo: There is a very good example that we should look at a little deeper; how the economy relation has been building up, and the Singaporeans wanted to do more business, and they wanted to bring in more manufacturing and investment, and also the service sector. But their investment has gone down dramatically in the last five years because the way the Junta has run the economy does not really benefit the Singaporean interest.

”The only way that economic reform can be done is to find a political solution...” Zaw Oo

So I think Singapore has very strong interest, they want to see a more productive and more business friendly rule in the country. The only way that economic reform can be done is to find a political solution to overcome the current crisis.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: So should ASEAN expel Burma, or stay engaged?

Zaw Oo: Well I think we have to give some time for the UN mechanisms to work, and if the UN gives up finding a solution on Burma, then I think not only the ASEAN but the rest of the world should start thinking about measures to put leverage on Burma. So that could include the option of expelling the country from the ASEAN.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Zaw Oo, thank you.

Zaw Oo: Thank you, thank you very much.