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The challenges for Japan’s new PM
Interview with Associate Professor Dr Daqing Yang.
First Broadcast 23/09/2007
Japan’s government politicians and Liberal Democratic Party officials have chosen Yasuo Fukuda as their new leader.

The former chief cabinet secretary was vying with the Party’s Secretary General Taro Aso for the prime minister’s position, following the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier this month.

Mr Fukuda, 71, who won the position 330 votes to 197, will not formally take up his new position until Tuesday.

A critical test for the new prime minister will be a special anti-terror Bill, extending Japan's naval support for the United States led operations in Afghanistan. Opposition parties can delay legislation beyond the November deadline - a deadlock in parliament could prompt a snap election.

Before the vote, Helen Vatsikopoulos spoke to Associate Professor of History and International Affairs at George Washington University, Dr Daqing Yang.


Helen Vatsikopoulos, Presenter: Well Dr Daqing Yang has been closely following the campaign. He's a specialist in modern Japanese history and foreign relations and is Associate Professor of History and International Affairs at George Washington University in the United States. I spoke to him from Washington. Dr Yang, welcome to the program.

Dr Daqing Yang, Associate Professor of History and International Affairs, George Washington University: Oh, it's nice to be back here, Helen.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Now, Shinzo Abe was the youngest post-war prime minister in Japan's history. He had a desire for constitutional change, a departure from the post-war regime, for regaining Japan's stature. Was this just too much, too soon, for Japan?

Dr Daqing Yang: There is a yearning for a pride in Japan, among the Japanese public. After what is called the 'lost decade' in the 1990s, due to the economic slump, and then due to the rise of neighbouring China. There is a crisis of confidence among the Japanese population, and in that sense, his call to build what he called a 'beautiful Japan', certainly had some resonance.
On the other hand, many people have pointed out that he may be a little bit too inexperienced. In some ways that's true, given the fact that he has not had many cabinet portfolios before assuming prime ministership.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: The LDP was badly damaged in the July upper house poll. What is it going to take for the new leader to restore the Party's fortunes?

Dr Daqing Yang: Yes, I think there are many issues on the table, and to explain why LDP did so poorly in the last election. One thing is the money scandal, involving a number of high profile cabinet ministers as well as LDP politicians. There was the mismanagement of the pension data that upset many Japanese people, and also there was the issue that many people felt was overhauling the economy, deregulation - went too far. So there is considerable discontent among the population, which translated into the election defeat.

”I think whoever becomes the next prime minister of Japan really has his plate full.”


Now, the way Mr Abe resigned his office also upset a lot of people. So I think whoever becomes the next prime minister of Japan really has his plate full.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Taro Aso is not a front-runner at this stage, but wouldn't he attract younger voters, because apparently he's already driven up the sales of his beloved comic books just by being nominated?

Dr Daqing Yang: Yes, there was a poll done in Japan asking the question which politicians the public would choose as a successor to Mr Abe, and Mr Aso came on top. I think garnering something like 21 per cent, so in that sense, you can argue that by picking Mr Aso it will help lift LDP's popularity. But as you know, the LDP elders, the faction leaders, didn't think so. They picked Mr Fukuda because they saw Fukuda as more experienced, and he will bring the stability to the LDP Party.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: At 71, Yasuo Fukuda is an elder statesman, the longest serving cabinet secretary in post-war Japan. Is he the safe pair of hands that the Japanese are looking for, after Shinzo Abe?

Dr Daqing Yang: Yes. Mr Fukuda was the longest serving secretary in post-war Japan. I think by picking him, the factional leaders of the LDP hope that he would bring stability to the Party.

We have to think that the way the youngest post-war prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, resigned his post was rather dramatic and disappointed a lot of people within the Party, as well as outside of the Party. So you can see that the Party elders went to the opposite: they picked a more seasoned, older politician, to bring stability back to the LDP Party.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Of course, he has admitted to having a charisma bypass. Will the Japanese actually warm to him, coming after Abe and of course the flamboyant Junichiro Koizumi?

Dr Daqing Yang: I think their personal style and personal charisma mattered, but also policy priorities and experience also matter, and I would think that the Japanese public in general would have to think very carefully about where each leader is leading the country forward to.

”There is a widening gap of inequality.”


As you know, the deregulation initiated by Mr Koizumi also brought about a lot of anxiety among the Japanese population, there is a widening gap of inequality, and these are domestic issues that the next prime minister will have to address very seriously.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Mr Fukuda has ruled out ever visiting the Yasakuni Shrine. Obviously good relations with the neighbours are more important to him. Will he take Japan back to a much safer era?

Dr Daqing Yang: Well, in particular I think Mr Fukuda is, so to speak, the favoured candidate by its immediate Asian neighbours. Mr Fukuda, when he served under former Prime Minister Koizumi, had chaired an advisory council on building a non-religious war memorial as an alternative to the controversial Yasakuni Shrine. Now he has said he may not revive this idea, he has to take Japanese public sentiment into consideration. But I think he even in his election manifesto, he has emphasised improving relations with China and Korea.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Now, Shinzo Abe fell on his sword after his failure to secure the anti-terror Bill, the Japanese refuel coalition ships aiding the Afghanistan mission. If he failed to do so, why would Mr Aso or Mr Fukuda succeed?

Dr Daqing Yang: Well this particular Bill, I think Mr Fukuda may be more experienced in perhaps negotiating some kind of compromise with the opposition party leader. It's hard to say what Mr Aso would do. But this is a rather hotly debated issue within Japan, and just I think a day ago, the United States Security Council passed a resolution, which also mentioned Japan's contribution.
So it is being taken into consideration in domestic debate in Japan.

Helen Vatsikopoulos: Dr Yang, thank you.

Dr Daqing Yang: Thank you very much, Helen.
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Jim Middleton presents Asia Pacific Focus for Australia Network and ABC Television.
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